General Discussion - 2011

[chewie]

The new KillTheCan.org store is now officially open for business:

http://store.killthecan.org/

We've created this to offer a more robust (and hopefully easier) shopping experience.

Some features of the new store (in case you're interested):

• Coupons  Specials: we now have the ability to offer our fans and members coupons and special pricing. VERY EXCITING!
• Account creation: for those of you that make repeat purchases (THANK YOU!) you now can create an account. This will store your shipping/billing info (we're not storing credit card info) to make checkout easier in the future. Don't worry... we also offer GUEST CHECKOUT if you prefer.
• Order history (if you create an account)
• Wish list: see something you like but you're not ready to pull the trigger? Add it to your wish list for later.
• Product comparisons: check out the differences between products
• Newsletter signup: we're going to be developing a newsletter in the future... you can sign up here!

Speaking of specials...

Now through the end of September, all Milestone Chips are on special!
http://store.killthecan.org/milestone-chips

We've just rolled this out so there may be a bug here and there... thanks for your patience and feedback is always welcome!

chewie

[chewie]

New blog post: Marching Toward 10K

http://blog.killthecan.org/2011/08/marching-toward-10k/

[magnum9]

Conversely, 5 of the 56 cavers started their quit with at least 10 consecutive days of posting roll. Which means that 51 cavers couldn't make it to double digits. Maybe there's your magic number. There's a 91.07% chance of caving if you don't make it to day 10 (according to August 2011 data; recognizing that the sample size is not representative.... )

If you do not make it to day 10, by definition you would have caved (100%).

What I think this is actually showing is that if you were to cave, there is a 91% chance that you would do it in the first ten days (based on your sample)

That's probably more accurate... though I also think this illustrates that if you start posting roll from day 1, and post consecutively through day 10, you are more likely to continue with the program.

Of course, I'm not a statistician or actuary - and I know that the active quitters (39) are not included in this statistic. So it's probably actually higher than 91%. But again - the sample size isn't large enough. With so many spreadsheets out there, I'll bet someone will be industrious enough to get this math working. Happy to do my part for who ever wants to take the lead (I can't - just not smart enough :) )

The unknown is whether or not folks who stop posting pre-HOF have, in fact, caved.

Yep... and therein lies the crux of the issue that I (we) have with quantifying our success rates. Just because someone doesn't post roll that doesn't mean they're back on the can.

Which goes back to what I've often said about long term success here (hence the reason I still post daily 5+ years in): "If your name is on the line, I'm 100% sure that you're quit. If your name's NOT on the line, I have no idea."

Chewie,

I agree that there is an issue with counting this kind of data; however, there is one type of data that absolutely does mean something that has not been mentioned.

Success rate after quitters get through the 14-21 day mark.

Lets face it, most fail in the first few days. Most who will leave the site leave within the first few weeks. After the 14-21 day mark (when your brain has rewired itself) we are all in a much clearer state and have a sense of whether we want to remain here or not.

Now you would have to use the HoF 100 day mark as one mark and maybe the 30 day mark as your other. The percentages should be based off of these two numbers.

Keep these simple stats and your going to be happy.

1. Percentage of quitters who reach 30 days
2. Percentage of quitters who reach 30 days and reach HoF 100 days.

Those two percentages mean more than anything if you ask me. They at least give an indicator to go by. I would be the success rate for those who make 100 days after reaching 30 days is well over 50%... that is a good number.

The other nice thing is that since I have arrived here it looks like groups have got the whole spreadsheet thing going in a great direction. Hopefully it gets passed along to every group and numbers will start being really easy to keep track of so we can get a good estimate for what this site really does.

I have to be honest in saying this... to attract people you often need numbers. If this site does have a 15-25% success rate I do believe that would be one of the highest success rates ever in the history of tobacco cessation programs. Obviously that is a wild ass guess.

[G]

Conversely, 5 of the 56 cavers started their quit with at least 10 consecutive days of posting roll. Which means that 51 cavers couldn't make it to double digits. Maybe there's your magic number. There's a 91.07% chance of caving if you don't make it to day 10 (according to August 2011 data; recognizing that the sample size is not representative.... )

If you do not make it to day 10, by definition you would have caved (100%).

What I think this is actually showing is that if you were to cave, there is a 91% chance that you would do it in the first ten days (based on your sample)

That's probably more accurate... though I also think this illustrates that if you start posting roll from day 1, and post consecutively through day 10, you are more likely to continue with the program.

Of course, I'm not a statistician or actuary - and I know that the active quitters (39) are not included in this statistic. So it's probably actually higher than 91%. But again - the sample size isn't large enough. With so many spreadsheets out there, I'll bet someone will be industrious enough to get this math working. Happy to do my part for who ever wants to take the lead (I can't - just not smart enough :) )

The unknown is whether or not folks who stop posting pre-HOF have, in fact, caved.

Yep... and therein lies the crux of the issue that I (we) have with quantifying our success rates. Just because someone doesn't post roll that doesn't mean they're back on the can.

Which goes back to what I've often said about long term success here (hence the reason I still post daily 5+ years in): "If your name is on the line, I'm 100% sure that you're quit. If your name's NOT on the line, I have no idea."

Some folks can do it on their own, but I'd tend to think that if you thought you needed an Internet site to stay quit, you probably needed an Internet site to stay quit. I'd say at least 85-90% of those who stop posting pre HOF have caved, but that's just my SWAG and hardly scientific. Maybe we need a politician to interpret the numbers for us. I doubt they'd let a little unknown screw up their desired message.

[chewie]

Conversely, 5 of the 56 cavers started their quit with at least 10 consecutive days of posting roll. Which means that 51 cavers couldn't make it to double digits. Maybe there's your magic number. There's a 91.07% chance of caving if you don't make it to day 10 (according to August 2011 data; recognizing that the sample size is not representative.... )

If you do not make it to day 10, by definition you would have caved (100%).

What I think this is actually showing is that if you were to cave, there is a 91% chance that you would do it in the first ten days (based on your sample)

That's probably more accurate... though I also think this illustrates that if you start posting roll from day 1, and post consecutively through day 10, you are more likely to continue with the program.

Of course, I'm not a statistician or actuary - and I know that the active quitters (39) are not included in this statistic. So it's probably actually higher than 91%. But again - the sample size isn't large enough. With so many spreadsheets out there, I'll bet someone will be industrious enough to get this math working. Happy to do my part for who ever wants to take the lead (I can't - just not smart enough :) )

The unknown is whether or not folks who stop posting pre-HOF have, in fact, caved.

Yep... and therein lies the crux of the issue that I (we) have with quantifying our success rates. Just because someone doesn't post roll that doesn't mean they're back on the can.

Which goes back to what I've often said about long term success here (hence the reason I still post daily 5+ years in): "If your name is on the line, I'm 100% sure that you're quit. If your name's NOT on the line, I have no idea."

[G]

Conversely, 5 of the 56 cavers started their quit with at least 10 consecutive days of posting roll. Which means that 51 cavers couldn't make it to double digits. Maybe there's your magic number. There's a 91.07% chance of caving if you don't make it to day 10 (according to August 2011 data; recognizing that the sample size is not representative.... )

If you do not make it to day 10, by definition you would have caved (100%).

What I think this is actually showing is that if you were to cave, there is a 91% chance that you would do it in the first ten days (based on your sample)

That's probably more accurate... though I also think this illustrates that if you start posting roll from day 1, and post consecutively through day 10, you are more likely to continue with the program.

Of course, I'm not a statistician or actuary - and I know that the active quitters (39) are not included in this statistic. So it's probably actually higher than 91%. But again - the sample size isn't large enough. With so many spreadsheets out there, I'll bet someone will be industrious enough to get this math working. Happy to do my part for who ever wants to take the lead (I can't - just not smart enough :) )

The unknown is whether or not folks who stop posting pre-HOF have, in fact, caved.

[per034]

Conversely, 5 of the 56 cavers started their quit with at least 10 consecutive days of posting roll. Which means that 51 cavers couldn't make it to double digits. Maybe there's your magic number. There's a 91.07% chance of caving if you don't make it to day 10 (according to August 2011 data; recognizing that the sample size is not representative.... )

If you do not make it to day 10, by definition you would have caved (100%).

What I think this is actually showing is that if you were to cave, there is a 91% chance that you would do it in the first ten days (based on your sample)

That's probably more accurate... though I also think this illustrates that if you start posting roll from day 1, and post consecutively through day 10, you are more likely to continue with the program.

Of course, I'm not a statistician or actuary - and I know that the active quitters (39) are not included in this statistic. So it's probably actually higher than 91%. But again - the sample size isn't large enough. With so many spreadsheets out there, I'll bet someone will be industrious enough to get this math working. Happy to do my part for who ever wants to take the lead (I can't - just not smart enough :) )

[DennyX]

Question.

As my August quit brother are rounding the corner on step 1 HOF status I got to wondering about quit group data.  I'm sure it exists around here somewhere, but here is specifically what I was wondering:

What was the largest 1 month quit group?
What is the average size quit group?
How many people on average that have posted role fail to get their 100 days in?
How many total people have reached 100 days quit HOF status on this website?


Just curious.  I like to talk about this place and think some data would help me to be convincing to others that I try to make aware of the existence of killthecan.org.

Funny you should ask... we've never really compiled all of this data... until now.

I'm about to embark on a task I'm referring to in my mind as "Quantifying KTC". I'm going to be collecting this data on each quit group so that it's very easy to answer these questions.

Any volunteers? I'll need one person for each group who's willing to take up the task.

To answer your questions (off the top of my head):

What was the largest 1 month quit group? - April 06?
What is the average size quit group? - 30-50?
How many people on average that have posted role fail to get their 100 days in? - 30%?
How many total people have reached 100 days quit HOF status on this website? - 5,000?

PM sent, but I can get you anything for may 11.

August 11 is an open book. Happy to crunch whatever numbers we have... Data is incomplete though (we haven't all hit the hall yet), but here's some to chew on (no pun intended)

95 total quitters - 56 cavers = 39 total quitters. Success rate is 41.05% (so far.. subject to change).

29 of 39 quitters have posted roll at least 90% of the time. (74.36%)

16 of 39 quitters have never missed roll (41.025%)

27 of the 39 quitheads remaining started their quit with at least 10 consecutive days of posting roll. (69.23%)

Conversely, 5 of the 56 cavers started their quit with at least 10 consecutive days of posting roll. Which means that 51 cavers couldn't make it to double digits. Maybe there's your magic number. There's a 91.07% chance of caving if you don't make it to day 10 (according to August 2011 data; recognizing that the sample size is not representative.... )

Look at how close the number is for 100% posters and successful quitters.

This study would produce some major weaponry, to pierce the armor of those who come here to fight against the plan.

I've actually thought about this topic quite a bit. With each quit group gathering data there's got to be a lot of great info that could be squeezed out of it. I'll bet that with such a diverse membership there's a statistician here somewhere that could come up with some great insights. I love the idea.

[jimmykeeper]

If I don't post roll in the AM, I get jittery, nervous, anxious...hmmm, much like when I wouldn't pack a dip before lunch!

[steve1357]

Conversely, 5 of the 56 cavers started their quit with at least 10 consecutive days of posting roll. Which means that 51 cavers couldn't make it to double digits. Maybe there's your magic number. There's a 91.07% chance of caving if you don't make it to day 10 (according to August 2011 data; recognizing that the sample size is not representative.... )

If you do not make it to day 10, by definition you would have caved (100%).

What I think this is actually showing is that if you were to cave, there is a 91% chance that you would do it in the first ten days (based on your sample)

[ninereasons]

Question.

As my August quit brother are rounding the corner on step 1 HOF status I got to wondering about quit group data.  I'm sure it exists around here somewhere, but here is specifically what I was wondering:

What was the largest 1 month quit group?
What is the average size quit group?
How many people on average that have posted role fail to get their 100 days in?
How many total people have reached 100 days quit HOF status on this website?


Just curious.  I like to talk about this place and think some data would help me to be convincing to others that I try to make aware of the existence of killthecan.org.

Funny you should ask... we've never really compiled all of this data... until now.

I'm about to embark on a task I'm referring to in my mind as "Quantifying KTC". I'm going to be collecting this data on each quit group so that it's very easy to answer these questions.

Any volunteers? I'll need one person for each group who's willing to take up the task.

To answer your questions (off the top of my head):

What was the largest 1 month quit group? - April 06?
What is the average size quit group? - 30-50?
How many people on average that have posted role fail to get their 100 days in? - 30%?
How many total people have reached 100 days quit HOF status on this website? - 5,000?

PM sent, but I can get you anything for may 11.

August 11 is an open book. Happy to crunch whatever numbers we have... Data is incomplete though (we haven't all hit the hall yet), but here's some to chew on (no pun intended)

95 total quitters - 56 cavers = 39 total quitters. Success rate is 41.05% (so far.. subject to change).

29 of 39 quitters have posted roll at least 90% of the time. (74.36%)

16 of 39 quitters have never missed roll (41.025%)

27 of the 39 quitheads remaining started their quit with at least 10 consecutive days of posting roll. (69.23%)

Conversely, 5 of the 56 cavers started their quit with at least 10 consecutive days of posting roll. Which means that 51 cavers couldn't make it to double digits. Maybe there's your magic number. There's a 91.07% chance of caving if you don't make it to day 10 (according to August 2011 data; recognizing that the sample size is not representative.... )

Look at how close the number is for 100% posters and successful quitters.

This study would produce some major weaponry, to pierce the armor of those who come here to fight against the plan.

[per034]

Question.

As my August quit brother are rounding the corner on step 1 HOF status I got to wondering about quit group data.  I'm sure it exists around here somewhere, but here is specifically what I was wondering:

What was the largest 1 month quit group?
What is the average size quit group?
How many people on average that have posted role fail to get their 100 days in?
How many total people have reached 100 days quit HOF status on this website?


Just curious.  I like to talk about this place and think some data would help me to be convincing to others that I try to make aware of the existence of killthecan.org.

Funny you should ask... we've never really compiled all of this data... until now.

I'm about to embark on a task I'm referring to in my mind as "Quantifying KTC". I'm going to be collecting this data on each quit group so that it's very easy to answer these questions.

Any volunteers? I'll need one person for each group who's willing to take up the task.

To answer your questions (off the top of my head):

What was the largest 1 month quit group? - April 06?
What is the average size quit group? - 30-50?
How many people on average that have posted role fail to get their 100 days in? - 30%?
How many total people have reached 100 days quit HOF status on this website? - 5,000?

PM sent, but I can get you anything for may 11.

August 11 is an open book. Happy to crunch whatever numbers we have... Data is incomplete though (we haven't all hit the hall yet), but here's some to chew on (no pun intended)

95 total quitters - 56 cavers = 39 total quitters. Success rate is 41.05% (so far.. subject to change).

29 of 39 quitters have posted roll at least 90% of the time. (74.36%)

16 of 39 quitters have never missed roll (41.025%)

27 of the 39 quitheads remaining started their quit with at least 10 consecutive days of posting roll. (69.23%)

Conversely, 5 of the 56 cavers started their quit with at least 10 consecutive days of posting roll. Which means that 51 cavers couldn't make it to double digits. Maybe there's your magic number. There's a 91.07% chance of caving if you don't make it to day 10 (according to August 2011 data; recognizing that the sample size is not representative.... )

[marjwilliams]

I agree.  If you are looking at total number of "sworn quitters" that post a day 1 all the way throught the HOF...then 70% success rate seems a little high to me too........I think Chewie knows that too....he must have misunderstood the question.

MOA

You're right... if you're looking at everyone's that's ever posted a day 1, that's prolly way high. I was referring to people that posted with "regularity" - however that's defined.

Since the 1st 4 days is so crucial then a good datapoint may be to see what % of people that post role for 1 week make it to the HOF.

I don't know. Just think out loud.

[chewie]

I agree. If you are looking at total number of "sworn quitters" that post a day 1 all the way throught the HOF...then 70% success rate seems a little high to me too........I think Chewie knows that too....he must have misunderstood the question.

MOA

You're right... if you're looking at everyone's that's ever posted a day 1, that's prolly way high. I was referring to people that posted with "regularity" - however that's defined.

[minuteofangle]

I agree. If you are looking at total number of "sworn quitters" that post a day 1 all the way throught the HOF...then 70% success rate seems a little high to me too........I think Chewie knows that too....he must have misunderstood the question.

MOA